Our new study of 8,617 of these anti-Reform voters is one of the most detailed investigations into this coalition to date.
Anti-Reform voters are not a coherent bloc, but a coalition united by suspicion of Reform’s ideology and its ability to deliver. Looking beyond the standard left-right axis, we find five distinct segments: Agitated Activists, Pragmatic Progressives, Hopeful Left, Comfortable Moderates and Disaffected Right.
For tactical voting to work at the next general election, voters need clear information about which party is best placed to beat Reform in their seat. They also need to feel there is a genuine national risk of Reform forming a government, and that the tactical challenger is distinct enough from Reform to justify voting outside their usual preference.
where Reform UK is competitive at the next election
where a split opposition vote is Reform’s main route to victory
Although immigration and asylum is Reform’s flagship policy area, anti-Reform voters are most concerned by the prospect of Farage as Prime Minister, the impact on the NHS and social care, and the consequences for the cost of living and the economy. Many anti-Reform voters also hold anti-immigration views themselves — meaning Farage’s unpopularity and the risks Reform poses to the economy and household budgets may be more persuasive than immigration framing alone.
think Reform’s views are legitimate within normal debate
have a negative opinion of Nigel Farage
