10 seats and stats to watch out for tonight

Nick Lowles - 08 06 17

1. UKIP won Clacton in 2015 but Douglas Carwell’s decision to leave the party and then subsequently not stand for re-election is handing the seat back to the Tories.

Aaron Banks initially looked to contest the seat but he was shunned by the local party. The demographics still remain strong for UKIP in this seat so it will be interesting if it can top 30%.

2. Dagenham & Rainham has emerged as a key UKIP priority, especially after the London terror attack and the news that the killers came from neighbouring Barking.

UKIP polled 28% in 2015 with very little work, now one pollster has the party on 28% again. Much has been made of the collapse of the UKIP vote, but Dagenham & Rainham is one of those seats where it might just hold up.

3. UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is contesting Boston & Skegness and polls predict he will finish a poor second.

It’s been a tough election for the party and attention will soon turn to whether Nuttall can hold the party together afterwards.

4. Nigel Farage must be kicking himself that he is not standing in South Thanet after news that the Tory MP, Craig Mackiney, has been charged with electoral fraud.

As it is, pollsters predict UKIP will again finish third.

5. The BNP is standing just five candidates in this election, with its leader Adam Walker contesting Bishop Auckland.

Despite there being no UKIP candidate, it is doubtful if Walker can attract more than about 1% of the vote.

6. UKIP is polling at only a third of its 2014 vote.

However, it is HOPE not hate’s suspicion that this is unlikely to be a uniform drop, with the UKIP vote in more traditionally Conservative areas falling more than in more working class seats. It will also be interesting to see if the UKIP holds up more in areas where the BNP was previously strong.

7. Our recent HOPE not hate/NUT poll of young people, carried out by ICM, gave UKIP the support of just 1% of 18-24 year olds.

Can it really be that low?

8. In 2015, only 43% of 18-24 year olds voted.

Will it be higher this time?

9. Where has the 2015 UKIP voter gone?

And what do they still think on the issues, like immigration, that pushed them to UKIP in the first place?

10. What impact will the recent terrorist attacks have had on the election?

And how have they impacted attitudes to terrorism, immigration, integration, and Muslim communities more generally.

We’ll be tracking the results of UKIP and other far-right candidates as they come in here.


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