In the run up to Britain’s scheduled exit from the European Union on 31 October, HOPE not hate is publishing a series of briefing papers looking at key issues such as public opinion on the way forward, trust in politics, and the impact on communities most at risk of far right activity.
HOPE not hate has long opposed the prospect of a hard Brexit. The economic impact of crashing out of the EU will be felt by communities that have been ignored and hard done by for too long, and create a fertile breeding ground for the far right.
Boris Johnson is likely to be chosen by members of the Conservative Party to become the UK’s next prime minister. Alongside a range of urgent issues, Johnson will be faced by the prospect of a looming Brexit cliff edge, with Britain’s membership of the EU due to come to an end on 31 October.
Boris Johnson is very likely to be elected as the next leader of the Conservative Party on the back of a strong desire by party members to leave the EU without a deal. However, if Johnson fails to deliver a No Deal Brexit he could find Conservative Party voters and Leave voters more generally turn on him quickly.
We commissioned some polling, alongside Best for Britain, to try and understand what pathway public opinion gives Johnson as he seeks to decide between agreeing to a ‘soft’ Brexit or a No Deal Brexit, or possibly even calling a General Election.
Here’s some of what we found:
The danger for Johnson is that by flirting with the idea of idea of no deal, and reassuring that all will be well, he is marching people up the hill without a plan on what to do when he gets there. Either he will outrage the majority of voters by going for a no deal, or he will outrage his core support by agreeing to a soft Brexit. Perceptions of him as out of his depth, incompetent and a ‘buffoon’ suggest he has no reservoir of credibility to lean back on if and when the crunch moment comes.
Boris Johnson has hinted at a no deal Brexit which most voters oppose but which his own base craves. At the same time, few people have confidence he can negotiate a better deal from Brussels. A ‘no deal’ Brexit would have a devastating impact on communities already struggling but Boris Johnson has little room for manoeuvre because of his posturing during the last few months. What Britain needs is for the politicians to come together and work out a process that can bring the country together, and ultimately giving the final say to the voters.
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