There is a real appetite among Conservative Party members for more right-wing policies, exclusive polling for HOPE not hate has discovered. But, as yet, members have not coalesced around a future Party leader to drive these changes through.
We have been reminded about the Conservative Party’s deep rooted problem of Islamophobia and growing conspiracy theorist sympathies. Lee Anderson stating “Islamists” have “got control” of Muslim Mayor of London Sadiq Khan, Suella Braverman claiming that “the Islamists…are in charge now”, Liz Truss saying that the deep state caused her demise and Susan Hall, a woman who had liked a tweet calling Khan “our nipple height mayor of Londonistan” becoming the Conservative’s candidate for London Mayor. Rishi Sunak’s response has been to deny the scale of the problem of Islamophobia.
As the Conservative Party veers to the Radical Right, on many of these topics from immigration to multiculturalism, climate action to culture wars, its members are already in a place to welcome this shift ideologically.
HOPE not hate asked the polling company Opinium to survey Conservative Party members so we could ascertain the appetite for a more Radical Right leader in the event of the Tories losing the next General Election and a change in leadership.
The polling shows quite clearly Conservative Party members are hostile to minorities and negative about Britain’s multicultural society.
Just under half (45%), have a negative attitude towards immigrants, with just 20% having a positive attitude. A similar number (40%), have a negative attitude to Muslims, with only 19% having a positive attitude. There are even greater negative feelings towards the Roma and Traveller community (49%), with just 13% having a positive view.
There are slightly better impressions of people who identify themselves as LGBT+ and feminists, though even here there are more people who hold negative views to those who hold positive ones.
The only minority who Conservatives felt more positive about were Jewish people, with 57% having a positive view and just 7% having a negative view.
Almost three quarters of respondents (72%) think “On the whole, immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country”, whilst just 28% agree with the statement “On the whole, immigration into Britain has been a good thing for the country.”
This is a massive change since we last polled Conservative Party members, in 2020, when 55% thought immigration into Britain has been a good thing for the country.
It is also at odds with society at large. Earlier this year, in a poll of 25,000 people, 55% thought immigration had been a good thing for the country and 45% thinking otherwise.
There has been a similar deterioration of views towards Britain’s multicultural society, with 74% believing that Britain’s multicultural society isn’t working and different communities generally live separate lives, whilst 26% think that Britain is a successful multicultural society where people from different backgrounds generally integrate. Amongst the population as a whole, 52% think that Britain is a successful multicultural society where people from different backgrounds generally integrate while 48% believe multiculturalism isn’t working.
More worryingly, Conservative Party members lean into extreme conspiracy thinking, with 52% of those polled believing that “parts of many European cities are under the control of Sharia Law and are ‘no-go’ zones for non-Muslims” are true, with just 21% believing this statement is false.
Almost half of members (45%) believe “Globalist elites are encouraging immigration into Europe as part of a plot to weaken European identity”, a view that’s common in far right conspiracy circles. Just a quarter of members (26%) thought this statement was not true.
These figures are far worse than those of the British public generally. In a 25,000 sample poll, conducted by HOPE not hate over Christmas and New Year, 30% of Britons believed that that “parts of many European cities are under the control of Sharia Law and are ‘no-go’ zones for non-Muslims”, whilst 27%, think “Globalist elites are encouraging immigration into Europe as part of a plot to weaken European identity”.
We asked Conservative Party members their views on a number of culture war issues and again, their views were more hardline than the general public. When asked if they thought “Feminism has gone too far and makes it harder for men to succeed”, 40% agreed and 28% disagreed. Amongst the general public the answer was 31% and 33% respectively.
When asked “to move forward as a Nation, we must acknowledge the mistakes during the period of the British Empire”, a quarter (24%) agreed, but over half (54%) disagreed. Amongst the general population, the figures were reversed. Almost half of respondents (46%) believed it was important to acknowledge mistakes, while 24% disagreed.
There was even greater disparity when asked if footballers should be supported taking the knee in opposition to racism. Amongst the general public, 41% believed that footballers should be supported, with 21% disagreeing. Amongst Conservative Party members, only 21% backed footballers taking the knee, 58% disagreed.
It is quite clear that the attitudes and views of Conservative Party members have hardened on immigration and minorities since our last poll. In 2020, 47% of Party members thought Islam was a threat to the British way of life, now it is 57%. Only 18% of members think Islam is compatible.
HOPE not hate also ask Conservative Party members about their views on the Party’s immigration policy. Four-fifths of Conservative Party members (80%) believe the UK should be prepared to ignore and/or overrule human rights legislation and the European Convention on Human Rights to ensure asylum seekers are sent to Rwanda, whilst, in a damning indictment of Rishi Sunak’s approach to immigration, 52% describe the Government’s approach to immigration as “not strong enough” and 41% believe it is “ineffective”.
Party members who are over 65, who make up 48% of the membership, are more right wing than their younger counterparts. Almost four-fifths (78%), think immigration has been made for Britain, compared to 65% amongst those aged between 44 and 64, while 81% think multiculturalism has failed, a view shared by 66% of Party members under 44.
Older members are almost twice as likely to believe that their Government’s immigration policy is “not strong enough” to those under 44 years of age, while 89% believe the UK should be prepared to ignore and/or overrule human rights legislation and the European Convention on Human Rights to ensure asylum seekers are sent to Rwanda, while only 2% believe we should not.
Those over 65% are slightly more likely to get their political news from GB News than younger members, but significantly more likely to watch the BBC than those aged between 45 and 64.
Younger members, those aged under 44, are 40% more likely to watch Sky News than older members, but only 1% will read The Times of the Daily Express, compared to 9% for members overall.
Just 7% of Conservative Party members choose Conservative Home website as one of the three places they get their news.
There is a clear appetite for more right-wing policies amongst Conservative Party members and this could easily translate to support for a Radical Right leader of the Party. However, when asked about a replacement for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, if he was to stand down now, members have not yet decided on who that might be. Given a list of seven possible leadership candidates, moderate Penny Mordaunt received the support of 22% of those polled. Next was former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, on 16%. No other person polled above 10%. However, 40% of respondents either said ‘none of the above’ or did not know.
Perhaps some were looking outside the parliamentary Party, and indeed the Party, for a leader. When asked if they supported or opposed Nigel Farage joining the Conservative Party, 55% would be happy if he joined and only 35% opposed.
Many Conservatives have already written off the Party’s chances in the forthcoming General Election and are already turning their attention to what happens after – with some calling it the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party. Those on the right believe that the Party has lost its way and needs to commit to much stronger anti-immigration policies, a reversal of green policies, tax cuts and a smaller state. Our polling suggests that Party members are overwhelmingly open to these policies, however, because it is Conservative MPs to whittle down the candidates to the two who are present to Party members, there might not be a clear Radical Right option for them to choose.
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