Who will decide Britain’s future?

By Elisabeth Pop

With the General Election 2017 only five weeks away and the future of our country hanging in the balance, it is more important than ever that every voice gets heard.

But HOPE not hate can reveal that traditionally under-represented communities, and social groups, remain at risk of not being heard on 8 June. In fact, with only 20 days left to the voter registration (VR) deadline on 22 May, they are more at risk than ever of losing their chance of a voice.

Register to vote now

While the total number of UK local government electors has increased by just over 1.1 million (+2.5%) between December 2015 and December 2016¹, HOPE not hate’s research shows that local authorities that are home to large numbers of students – or which include urban areas that experience high levels of ‘population churn’ – continue to struggle with lower numbers of registered voters when compared to May 2015.

Now, more than ever there is a need for a concentrated VR effort, and HOPE not hate and Bite the Ballot have joined forces to lead on it.

This is particularly important, given that:

• • The General Election (GE 2017) is a snap election and will not have the benefit of a long preparation for the run-up (as before, at GE 2015)
  • The EU Referendum was a ‘once in a generation’ election, hence came with a huge public awareness campaign that drove VR
  • GE2017 falls in the middle of the exams period, with students left wondering whether they should register at their university address or at home
  • The election takes place during the Muslim month of Ramadan, raising legitimate questions about a further potential barrier for ethnic and faith minorities who are already under-registered.

For over three years, HOPE not hate has been running VR campaigns with, and in, the very communities which are most in need of a political voice and which are most likely not to be registered to vote.

One of the first groups always at risk, and particularly with this snap election, is students. Time and time again students tell us that (following the introduction of Individual Electoral Registration) they are not registered at either their university or college address, that they don’t know they can register at both and that they don’t know where they will be on election day.

Furthermore, while there was an increase in student registration numbers in the run-up to the EU Referendum, it is not clear that students still live at those addresses or that they have re-registered when they moved. In fact, most of the constituencies that host significant student populations have seen a continuous decrease in the size of their register since December 2014.

Towns with significant student populations still have lower electoral registration levels compared with GE2015

Other groups and communities at risk are:

• • Young vs Old: 70% of 18-to-24 year-olds were registered to vote at GE 2015 compared to 95% of those over retirement age (vInspired, 2015²), but only 43% voted compared with 78% of 65+ year olds (IPSOS Mori, 2015³)
  • Some Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups: 85.9% of White British people are on the electoral register, 83.7% of British Asians, but for Black people it is just 76%. For people of mixed ethnicity it is 73.4%, and for those whose ethnicity falls into the ‘Other’ category it is 62.9% (EC, 2014⁴)
  • Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK are eligible to vote in all UK elections, but just 61.8% are registered here. This compares with 86.5% for all British citizens in the UK (EC, 2014)
  • 56% of voters living in private rented accommodation were registered compared with 88% of homeowners (EC, 2011⁵).

Despite the huge push for VR in the run-up to the EU Referendum and the full transition to Individual Electoral Registration (IER), the General Election electorate of the following constituencies has fallen:

• Manchester, Withington: 2015 = 74,616 ; 2016 = 69,707 → -4,909 = – 6.6%
• Manchester, Gorton: 2015 = 74,227 ; 2016 = 70,873 → -3,354 = – 4.5%
• Glasgow South: 2015 = 70,642 ; 2016 = 67,896 → -2,746 = – 3.9%

London, as one of the cities with the biggest population ‘churns’ in the UK, also has 162,000 less people on the (last) December 2016 register compared with May 2015 one, with some London boroughs particularly at risk of seeing their residents disenfranchised come 8 June.

Two thirds of London boroughs have lower electoral registration levels compared with GE2015

Building on from the success of the TurnUP VR campaign run in partnership with Bite the Ballot in the run-up to the EU Referendum, and years of experience working at the grassroots level in marginalised or vulnerable communities, HOPE not hate is announcing a new VR campaign and asking for national and local partners to join us.

For more info, get in touch at [email protected] . 

**Blog amended on 14/02/2018**

Data Sources

¹https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/elections/electoralregistration/bulletins/electoralstatisticsforuk/2016

²http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04/30/70-percent-young-people-registered-vote-general-election_n_7178064.html

³https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

⁴http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/169889/Completeness-and-accuracy-of-the-2014-electoral-registers-in-Great-Britain.pdf

⁵http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/news-releases-reviews-and-research/new-report-shows-at-least-6m-people-not-registered-to-vote

State of May 2015 register and comparison with December 2014, data supplied in August 2015 by Electoral Commission for the HOPE not hate Report “Britain’s Missing Voters” (September 2015)