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A new HOPE not hate poll shows that if an election were held today, Reform UK could bag between 76 and 169 seats in Parliament. Nick Lowles runs us through the poll and what it means for democracy in the UK
HOPE not hate polled over 17,000 voters to see which parties they would and wouldn’t support at a UK general election. The results are a wake up call for us all.
Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain, taking support off both the Conservatives and Labour, whilst also winning over some of those who had stopped voting.
Our polling shows that 60 of the 76 Reform pick-ups are currently held by Labour, 10 by the Conservatives and one by the Liberal Democrats. The remaining five are already held by Reform.
But politics is volatile and, with just a 3% swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives, Reform UK could be on 169 seats.
Our polling suggests there are currently 266 seats where there is less than 6% between the top two parties. There are even 60 three-way marginals and one four-way marginal.
This suggests a period of huge political flux, with marginal changes to polling having a marked impact on MRP predictions.
Reform UK’s voter base is not a single bloc—it’s a coalition of people frustrated with mainstream politics, drawn in by their promises to “fix the system.”
Our megapoll of Reform UK voters found that their supporters fall into five key groups:
Our analysis is clear. There is no single way to fight Reform. There are different types of Reform voters and each need a different approach. At the same time, we need to hold Reform accountable to greater scrutiny for its increasingly divergent and contradictory positions. Reform get away with being able to have a coalition of libertarian free marketeers alongside those who want greater state intervention and ownership of key industries.
In 2024, the average Reform UK voter had strong anti-immigration views but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views. This includes a sizeable group who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.
As anti-fascists, we need to approach these would-be Reform UK voters with understanding and respect. We need to connect to them on the values they hold and on issues we have in common. Our polling shows that issues like the environment, workers rights and public ownership are supported by these new voter groups.
We can stop them, but only if we start organising now.
This fight will be won on the ground, in our towns, our workplaces, and our communities. The more of us standing together, the stronger our resistance. Join us today and be part of the movement to stop Reform UK before they gain even more power.
Help us do more of this work and take a stand against the divisive politics of Reform UK. Your donations enable us to organise locally, resist far-right extremism, and build a united front. Every contribution helps.
Promoted by Nick Lowles on behalf of HOPE not hate at 167-169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF, United Kingdom.
HOPE not hate
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Telephone +44 (0)207 952 1181
Registered office 167-169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF, United Kingdom.
HOPE not hate Limited (“HOPE not hate”) receives grants from HOPE not hate Charitable Trust, a registered charity in England and Wales with charity number 1013880.
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Promoted by Nick Lowles on behalf of HOPE not hate at 167-169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF, United Kingdom.
HOPE not hate
HOPE not hate Limited (Reg. No. 08188502)
Telephone +44 (0)207 952 1181
Registered office 167-169 Great Portland Street, 5th Floor, London, W1W 5PF, United Kingdom.
HOPE not hate Limited (“HOPE not hate”) receives grants from HOPE not hate Charitable Trust, a registered charity in England and Wales with charity number 1013880.
Site built by 89up