Family Bust-Up

Last December it was rumoured that Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was prepared to support Reform UK to the tune of $100m. Three weeks later, that potential funding appeared to be off the table, as the man who spent $250m helping to get Donald Trump elected came out publicly against the Reform UK leader, posting on X: “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.”

Incredibly, the public rebuke was over street thug Stephen Lennon, better known as Tommy Robinson. Amidst a stream of tweets attacking the British government over their handling (or mishandling) of the grooming issue, Musk repeatedly backed Lennon, only to be furious that Farage took an opposite view.

Farage tried to play down the criticism from Musk, even doubling down on his attack on Lennon as a sign of his independence and refusal to be swayed by financial power. Of course, behind the scenes, Farage and his US supporters desperately tried to repair the damage and retain the prospect of funding.

The Reform leader’s dislike of Lennon has a long history, but it is also reflective of his attempts to moderate his public views in order to appeal to a broader section of the electorate.

Mutual Dislike

Nigel Farage has long made his dislike for Lennon clear. In 2018, he stormed out of an interview in the United States when he learned that the clip was to be used on Lennon’s “Free Speech” video, which was part of the Day for Freedom rally.

A year later, as Farage rallied tens of thousands of supporters at a pro-Brexit demo in Parliament Square, a couple of hundred metres away a cocaine-fuelled Lennon was holding his own pro-Brexit protest.

Lennon was a latecomer to the Brexit cause. By his own admission, he had not voted in the 2016 EU referendum, nor had he campaigned for Brexit at any stage. However, with the topic now dominating the political debate in the country, Lennon jumped aboard the Brexit cause, attaching himself to then-UKIP leader Gerard Batten due to their shared antipathy towards Islam.

In November 2018, Batten appointed Lennon as a personal advisor on “rape gangs and prison reform.” This in turn caused a furious backlash among others in UKIP, including Nigel Farage, who had never liked Lennon. With many UKIP MEPs and NEC members resigning in disgust, Farage called for Batten to stand down as leader.

For Farage, Batten’s involvement with Lennon was the final straw, and an indication that UKIP was prioritising street activism over electoral politics.

“The great irony of this change in approach is that it is happening at a time of maximum electoral opportunity for UKIP,” Farage wrote in a column for The Daily Telegraph.

“With the Conservative and Labour parties having openly broken both their referendum and general election promises, UKIP should be riding high in the polls. With regret, however, I must admit that I now do not believe it will do so again. Mr Batten’s obsession with Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (to use Tommy Robinson’s real name) and fixation with the issue of Islam makes UKIP unrecognisable to many of us.”

With Lennon blocked from joining UKIP, he decided to go it alone and stand as an independent candidate in the 2019 European elections. When announcing this decision, he couldn’t help but take a dig at Farage.

“Put me right inside the EU and they won’t know what hit them,” Lennon said. “They’ll long for the days when it was just Nigel Farage.”

“I admire what Farage achieved in the past. But at the end of the day, he’s just another millionaire stockbroker who looks down at the working classes. And he’s terrified of talking about issues like the Islamification of Britain. He won’t fight the battle for the heart of our country – in fact, he bad-mouths those who do.”

Last summer, at the huge Tommy Robinson demo, Lennon clearly softened his public criticism of Farage when he asked which of his followers had backed Reform in the general election. A huge cheer went up
in the crowd.

If Lennon was hoping that this display of support would soften the Reform leader’s view of him, he was deeply mistaken. Days later, as rioting erupted, Farage was at pains to tell the media that Lennon was a troublemaker and was stirring up hatred to help incite the riots.

There is clearly no love lost between the two men. This is probably partly personality clashes, but it is also quite political. Both have big egos and both have been vying to be the main figures on the British right – albeit coming from quite different traditions.

Farage is clearly concerned that Lennon’s violent past and aggressive language could alienate potential Reform voters. Lennon, meanwhile, thinks that Farage has sold out in order to achieve political success and so is refusing to say and do what is needed to deal with immigration and the threat of Islam.

The Moderate Reform Voter

The Reform leader’s desire to keep Lennon at arm’s length would have been bolstered and even vindicated by evidence that more moderate voters are beginning to switch to Reform, many of whom utterly detest Lennon.

HOPE not hate’s analysis of the current Reform voter has identified five distinct tribes. There are those who, as you would expect, have very hard-line positions on immigration and Islam, but there is also a growing group who do not. For these voters, it is the failure of the main two parties to deliver that is pushing them to Reform, rather than an antipathy to immigration.

Labelled the Moderate Interventionists, this group makes up 19% of current Reform voters, with most having come over to Reform since the General Election. Only 5% of Moderate Interventionists “strongly like Tommy Robinson”, with a further 14% tending to like him. By contrast, 40% dislike him.

Contrast that to the Working Right group, who are most strongly opposed to immigration and Islam. A majority, 55%, support Lennon, with just 13% not supporting him.

Farage’s repeated attempts to distance himself from Lennon, even after Musk’s criticism, is quite calculated. The core anti-immigrant vote is probably between 15% of the British population, so to achieve the 30-35% Reform would need to win the next election requires the party winning over more moderate voters – including many who will strongly dislike Lennon.

The Moderate Interventionists is the fastest growing group of Reform voters, and given that they are actually more positive about multiculturalism and the need for community cohesion than the British population at large, Farage is moderating his views – publicly at least.

Preferring to focus on pulling Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and creating policies to refuse asylum to anyone crossing the channel, he dismissed a broader policy of mass deportations of those already here.

“It’s a political impossibility to deport hundreds of thousands of people. We simply can’t do it.”

Farage has also sought to soften his position on Islam and British Muslims more generally. Speaking on the
Winston Marshall podcast in November, the Reform leader said: “The nub of it is, we have a Muslim population in Britain growing at about 75% every 10 years, that’s just where we are. If we politically alienate the whole of Islam we will lose. We will lose.

“We will lose. By 2050 goodness knows what a terrible state we are going to be in.”

Potential Problems in the Future

Farage’s repeated attempts to put clear blue water between himself and Lennon are not without their risks. While the growing numbers of Moderate Interventionists now backing Reform might like this position, there are many who support the party who absolutely love the former EDL man. While Farage might believe that these voters have nowhere else to go, making it worth upsetting them on this issue, he cannot afford to alienate his base completely.

His detractors in and out of the party have leapt on this issue, criticising Farage for his position. One of
these people is Ben Habib, the party’s former codeputy leader before he was unceremoniously ousted by Farage and Richard Tice. Days after Elon Musk’s attack on Farage, Habib also jumped into the fray.

“Shut up about Tommy Robinson,” Habib told Farage on Talk TV.

In another interview on the same channel, Habib said Lennon was a political prisoner, and that as such he should receive the support of Reform.When Farage claimed that Lennon had committed violence against women, Habib shot back. “It is utterly deplorable that @Nigel_Farage should accuse Tommy Robinson of violence against women, especially given the current furore over gang rape gangs [sic].

“TR may have many many flaws (I don’t know and cannot comment) but he has been at the forefront of calling out those gangs. Disgusting.”

Another Reform critic of Farage’s position is Howard Cox, the party’s candidate in last year’s London Mayoral contest. So angry at being told that he could not publicly support Lennon, Cox quit Reform.

Perhaps sensing the mood of the party membership or perhaps simply wanting to exploit Farage’s discomfort over the issue, fellow Reform MP Rupert Lowe waded in with a more sympathetic tone.

Speaking to The Sun’s Never Mind the Ballots YouTube show, Mr Lowe defended Robinson, saying: “I say he’s
not right for Reform, he doesn’t want to be right for Reform, but he doesn’t deserve not to be given the
credit for the things that he’s done.”

Asked about Musk’s false claim that Robinson is a “political prisoner” who has been locked up for speaking out on grooming gangs, Mr Lowe poured fuel on the conspiracy theory. “I don’t know what he’s done and why he’s in prison,” he claimed.

“I hope while he’s in prison he’s being treated like every other prisoner. I gather he’s in solitary
confinement. I don’t know the ins and outs of that. I don’t know whether it’s right that he’s in solitary
confinement.”

Disregarding the fact that Lennon asked to be in solitary confinement, Lowe has quite consciously trod a different path to that of his party leader. Bolstered by Musk’s post that he would make a good Reform leader, Lowe was lukewarm in his loyalty to Farage when the row first broke out.

“I thank Elon for his kind comments,” Lowe told the media. “I just want to do what is right for my constituency and my country – that is my only interest.

“Nigel is leader of Reform. He made Brexit happen, and for that I will always be grateful.” Hardly a ringing
endorsement.

London Showdown

Nigel Farage must hope that the dispute is behind him as the party’s rise in the polls appears to have justified his position and the rift with Musk is resolved – at least publicly.

However, this is not to say that the row will not erupt again, especially when Lennon comes out of prison.
Having been incarcerated during the public row, he will no doubt have a few choice words to say about Farage on his release.

Another potential showdown might occur in September, when Lennon plans to hold a free speech demonstration in central London in what will be his first public engagement after coming out of prison. Headlining the event will be Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief of staff and a leading force in the MAGA movement.

Another potential speaker is Lennon’s close friend Laura Loomer, another MAGA favourite and a hard-line anti-Muslim activist.

While Bannon and Loomer’s presence will undoubtedly excite Lennon’s supporters, one person who will not be impressed is Elon Musk. Bannon and Loomer have nothing but contempt for the billionaire and have been leading the MAGA campaign against his influence. Their presence on a Lennon demo in London will annoy Musk, not least because he is part-funding Lennon’s free speech crusade.

While Farage will attempt to stay clear of this impending fight, it is likely that he will be drawn in at some stage.