Usually a set of County Council elections can’t be seen as particularly representative of the overall mood of the country. They are a small selection of English councils, even smaller this year due to some being deferred.
Traditionally these councils don’t produce many dramatic swings and moments, dominated as they have been in recent history by the Conservatives with some councils ebbing and flowing in and out of no overall control.
However this year, add in a Parliamentary by-election and a handful of Combined Authority elections and it’s clear there has been a seismic shift, and that there is no denying the worrying and continuing rise in strength of Reform UK.
There is no doubt from these early results that there seems to have been a shift in English politics, with Reform broadening its appeal up and down the country. We are also seeing parties winning on a much smaller vote share than usual suggesting, as our MRP poll from February pointed to, a fragmenting of the vote and an era of hyper-marginality.
Nowhere is this more obvious than the Runcorn by-election where Reform won by just 6 votes, but overcame a huge Labour majority to do so. This is one of the biggest swings and narrowest victories in by-election history. Surprisingly, for a by-election, turnout was healthy, only slightly down on the 2024 General Election. Alongside this, reports of winter fuel allowance and PIP coming up constantly on the doorstep suggest a real enthusiasm to punish the government.
A similar story has unfolded in Doncaster where turnout was up slightly on 2021, with Reform UK leapfrogging the Conservatives to take a close 2nd place. Ros Jones has held onto the role with a reduced majority going from a vote share of around 43% to around 32%. Reform UK came in with 31.6% and the Conservatives on 26%, near enough a three way tie.
Continuing on the theme of Reform UK’s strength and general electoral chaos, Northumberland County Council results also came in overnight. It has moved from a slim Conservative majority to No Overall control with just 3 seats now between the Conservatives on 26 and Reform on 23. Labour have been reduced to just 8 seats losing many of their traditional strongholds in South Northumberland.
HOPE not hate recently exposed some of Reform UK’s candidates in Northumberland for their far-right, conspiracy theory and anti-Muslim content. Unfortunately many of them have now become Councillors and will have a platform to spread these views in their local communities.
It will be a while until the dust settles here and we can see who can come out of here to form a majority capable of governing. It will be interesting to see how many other councils end up in the same position at the end of today.
Other notable results overnight are the races for Combined Authority Mayors in Greater Lincolnshire and the West of England.
Lincolnshire
Lincolnshire is one of the only areas, that has been declared overnight, to show a real clear Reform UK majority with Andrea Jenkyns running away from the Conservatives’ Rob Waltham. Jenkyns received 42% of the vote albeit on a turnout under 30%, one of the lower turnout contests of the evening. HOPE not hate are particularly worried about some of her extreme views and she has already claimed in a somewhat ungracious victory speech that asylum seekers should be housed in tents. She is now in a relatively high profile position with responsibilities ranging from economic development to transport and no doubt will use this platform to spread her divisive and hateful views on national issues too. We’ll be mobilising HOPE not hate supporters in Lincolnshire to make sure Andrea Jenkyn’s is held accountable for her election promises and challenged on her rhetoric.
West of England
In the race for West of England Mayor we saw yet another hyper marginal result with, you guessed it, a three way split, this time between Labour, Reform and the Greens all with a 20-25% share of the vote. The shock here was that Reform UK, with the infamous Arron Banks as their candidate, ran Labour so close in a contest touted as being one between Labour and the Greens. This signifies that Reform UK’s appeal is broadening in areas of the country that have not previously been strong for far-right parties.
A coalition of pessimism
We don’t know the full story of these elections yet but what we do know is that Reform UK seems to be picking up seats across England and seeing good results across demographically diverse areas. From rural Lincolnshire to the suburbs of Runcorn, they are on the rise with their voters united behind a sense of pessimism about the state of the country.
Our exclusive polling earlier this year identified a ‘coalition of pessimism’, voters from across the political spectrum, who indicated they could vote for Reform UK, who are united by a feeling that the country isn’t going in the right direction.
Our analysis is clear. There is no single way to fight Reform. There are different types of Reform voters and each need a different approach. At the same time, we need to hold Reform accountable to greater scrutiny for its increasingly divergent and contradictory positions. Reform get away with being able to have a coalition of libertarian free marketeers alongside those who want greater state intervention and ownership of key industries.
In 2024, the average Reform UK voter had strong anti-immigration views but those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views. This includes a sizeable group who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.
As anti-fascists, we need to approach these would-be Reform UK voters with understanding and respect. We need to connect to them on the values they hold and on issues we have in common. Our polling shows that issues like the environment, workers rights and public ownership are supported by these new voter groups.
There’s more to come
As the dust settles today and over the weekend, we will be back with more result.
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