Reform UK is the relaunched political project that started life as the Brexit Party in 2019. The party had a successful first outing at the European elections in that year, in which then-leader Nigel Farage led the party to the highest vote share, at a time of deep dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party and Labour. The party then had a fairly disastrous entry in the general election in December of that year, after grudgingly pulling candidates from every constituency with a Conservative incumbent.

The party advances a populist radical right agenda, promoting a divisive view of the UK that echoes the MAGA agenda of President Trump. It presents its movement as a “revolt” of the masses against an “metropolitan elite”, despite the decidedly wealthy backgrounds of most of the party leadership.

In the “Contract with You” that serves as the party’s manifesto, it rails against immigration, multiculturalism and “woke ideology” and “transgender indoctrination, as well as promising to immediately roll back Net Zero targets and efforts to prevent climate change.

Following the departure of Farage and its relaunch as Reform UK under new leader Richard Tice, the party made little headway in living up to its initial successes. Tice and his policies aroused little enthusiasm, and remained stuck around the 5% mark in national polling despite a substantial drop in support for the Conservative Party.

However, the return of Farage in the weeks prior to the General Election changed things dramatically. Having spent a lucrative three years hosting a primetime show on GB News and appearing on I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here!, Farage returned to retake the leadership of the party, a U-turn on his earlier decision to prioritise campaigning for Trump’s re-election instead.

The election campaign revealed the chaotic nature of the party’s candidate selection, with at least 166 of its previously announced candidates dropped or swapped in the months prior to polling day. While the reasons for most of these changes were not made public, there was a drumbeat of stories exposing shockingly extreme or otherwise unsuitable candidates that had somehow been selected to stand.

With its talismanic leader in place, Reform UK came in a strong third place with 14.3% of the vote, although in the warped reality of the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system this translated to just five seats: Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth and Basildon South & East Thurrock.

Clacton and Ashfield were comfortable victories for Farage and Tory defector Lee Anderson, Boston & Skegness and Great Yarmouth were much closer for Richard Tice and Rupert Lowe, and Reform’s surprise victor James McMurdock won Basildon South and East Thurrock with a margin of just 98 votes. Reform UK candidates received more than 20% of the vote in 148 seats and came second in 98 seats, mostly in the North East, Midlands and South Wales, with Labour taking first place in 89 of them.

The embarrassments stemming from the party’s abject failure to vet candidates did not end with the campaign. Just over a month after the election, it came to light that Reform’s surprise winner in Basildon South and East Thurrock, MP James McMurdock, had served a prison sentence for attacking an ex-girlfriend outside a nightclub.

Since the election, the party has been engaged in a period of drastic changes. This includes the controversial replacement of chairman Ben Habib with millionaire donor Zia Yusuf and promises to “professionalise and democratise” the party, as well as setting up almost 400 constituency branches.

Reform has also steadily grown its number of councillors to 52, the vast majority of whom have defected from the Conservative party; just eleven of its councillors have been elected under the party’s banner and its by-election record is improving but still patchy.

Reform’s steady rise in polling since the general election, which has seen the party come in first place in two separate polls in January, will be put to the first proper test at the 2025 local elections. Many pollsters overstated Reform’s vote share prior to the 2024 general election, and the lower turnout at local elections might see less-engaged prospective Reform voters stay home on the day.

However, it will also be the first major outing for Reform’s brand new network of constituency branches. It is hard to say how effective local branches will be at this stage; while some in Reform will have prior experience campaigning for other parties, others might have a steeper learning curve. It is likely, however, that all will be fired up with the enthusiasm that comes with campaigning for a new party that is climbing the polls, a stark contrast to the position of Labour and Conservative parties.